It only takes one glance at the screaming mothers, the bereaved wives, the orphaned children, their childhood innocence forever lost, and the men who never return home to see the impact of the invasion in Ukraine. Thousands of unmarked graves, countless women subject to sexual violence, entire cities lay in rubbles: there appears no end to the suffering.
Yet what differentiates this tragedy from the many that came before it, is that it serves as the calling of a new age. One that urges all to take off the rose-tinted glasses of tolerance and take a hard look at the harsh reality. This war has portrayed the failure of sanctions, the failure of talks, and the failure of an alliance of democracies. Not only is it a representation of past faults but along with the pandemic, it is also a warning bell for despots and democracies alike. The interconnected globalised world that we all aspired to comes with several caveats that can hinder all, whether your agenda is of freedom or fascism.
These are hardly separate issues. Rather they all embody the threads that weave together the horrid tapestry from hell. One issue can’t be resolved without the support of another.
Take the issue of the failed alliance. Optimists in the west- the ones who always insist on a glass half full- may argue that despite the obvious atrocities of the war of course we can all be thankful for the Russian invasion as it finally united all democracies. Yes, it’s true that Germany gave up years of post-WW2 pacifism in backing Ukraine with arms and pushing up defence spending. Olaf Scholz took such a decisive stand, without consulting most of his political allies, and it was welcomed by the German public. Yes, it’s also true that the very same American public that brought NATO hating Trump into office not many years ago, now also brought in reinforcements in Eastern Europe, alongside a reinvigorated appeal for a more responsible USA. And yes, it’s similarly true, that Brexit backing Boris also aided Ukraine with weapons whilst a previously increasingly insular Poland stepped up to take in the vast majority of the millions that fled the war-torn country. Looking through the optimists’ lens things do appear to be turning for the better. Yet the most convenient conclusion is rarely the most accurate one.
Because while there has been increased solidarity in the west- perhaps because this time those fleeing share the same skin? (an issue for another time)- there are significant outliers that ruin this mirage. Hungary is the most immediate oddity. The EU member has always flouted the status quo amongst European democracies and Orban’s recent win has only solidified his position. He has allied the country with Putin, refusing to offer his support for Ukraine through weapons or words and holding back major EU sanctions by exercising his veto. Within France, home to the enthusiastically pro-EU Macron, there is a growing threat from the far right that comes with Russian apologists and anti-NATO rhetoric, including the main opposition leader Marine Le Pen. And there is no test on NATO’s resolve, on whether the US, France or UK would really risk nuclear war over countries like Slovakia or Lithuania, countries which many American citizens for example would fail to even find on a map.
Yet the true issue arises when we look at democracies outside the West’s narrow sphere. Of course, it was expected that countries such as China would refuse to call out Russia but it has been joined by many of its own adversaries and others that are democracies in more than just name.
India is a key example herein. Often labelled the world’s ‘largest’ democracy due to its bludgeoning population as well as its proud post-independence democratic tradition. Under Modi’s nationalist government it has turned insular on various matters including most relevantly national security concerns. It isn’t alone in that march; many other post-pandemic trade difficulties have taken a deep hard look within to protect ‘key’ industries. India’s concerns lie with its supply of weapons, a majority of which come from Russia. This puts it in an impossible position wherein it can’t align itself with the US and other western democracies in denouncing Russia in the UN for example or imposing sanctions due to fear of repercussions. Additionally, India, as a major importerr of oil, is also increasingly reliant on Russian crude to keep the machine going. Whilst it is easy for many in the West to take the moral higher ground, such as the UK which barely gets any Russian oil imports or Germany which was willing to take the hit despite its high reliance on Russian gas and oil, as a developing country, India, can hardly manage such risks. This isn’t to absolve it of all blame but merely to understand its reluctance to join the anti-Russian bandwagon. Its official position is hardly pro-Russian, the way that Pakistan’s was under Imran Khan for example. Even though there may exist Russian sympathisers amongst India’s political cohorts and the general public, it merely takes on a self-serving stance of neutrality. Whilst this may be a hard pill for self-righteous western warriors, it is one that is dosed with reality and as such must be swallowed.
The failure of a democratic alliance is accompanied by a failure of sanctions and talks. The very threat of sanctions failed to put a hold on Mr. Putin. Now that overarching sanctions have been introduced, they have failed once again to impact his behaviour in Ukraine. Moreover, their all-encompassing nature ensures they are causing some pre-emptive failure as well. Because rather than serving to deter, they ensure a trigger-happy Putin has no further sanction qualms should he wish to continue invading other Eastern European countries. The only place where these sanctions haven’t failed is by revealing to all the major issues that arise with interconnected economies. A country reliant on trade or on international structures such as SWIFT is left vulnerable to sanctions. It thus serves as a warning to China, emboldening its warfare against the dollar hegemony and ensuring it keeps on its path to self-sufficiency. Yet even countries that don’t have to fear becoming an international pariah, are also suffering by being reliant on imports for key goods, as the war has led to train disruptions affecting all. Sunflower oil for example is a common Ukrainian export, whereas potash- a key component in fertiliser- is derived from Russia and Belarus (the Kremlin’s puppet state) not to mention wheat, oil and gas. Those countries that bought into the globalism pitch and rely on these countries for these important commodities are also changing tack. All this appears to spell a sorry death for globalisation.
When Nixon went into China or the Soviet Union fell, the Western world hopes that global trade and interconnection would embolden democracies. Rather than a rose garden of representative government we’ve been met with thorny autocracies and crony capitalism. Many before have predicted the increased insulation of India or the doom of globalisation, yet this time around: it may all be coming true. Be prepared, this is only the start of a new world order.
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