Ill-managed: COVID-19
As Turkey intensifies its onslaught in Syria’s Idlib region, Jeff Bezos announces a new green philanthropic ‘Bezos Earth fund’ (although leaving many to wonder when the plutocrat would be paying some dividends) and the US democratic election are taking place. Amongst all this even the death of Katherine Johnson, a beloved and accomplished mathematician for NASA who made the moon landings a possibility, on the 24th of Feb got lost in the jumble.
However, one thing that has occupied most news screens and papers is that of the newest string of Coronavirus, Covid-19. This virus which was first identified in Wuhan, China has been the center of attention. There has been mass hysteria, with shortages of surgical masks in China, school closures ie. However, in today's interconnected world the disease has managed to make its way to 58 other countries. There are over 86,000 cases worldwide, majority of them concentrated in China, with South Korea, Italy and Iran following.
The total deaths worldwide have just crossed 3000, with over 95 percent of these in China itself. That fact has not helped ease worries of many people. Earlier this month, health workers in Hong Kong went on strike demanding complete closure of borders with China. This however did not prove to be fruitful, and while travel has been limited it has not been cut off as that would go against official WHO advice.
The UK itself saw 13 new cases, raising the total to 36. Scotland confirmed its first case and Iris schools were closed, which added to worries for the two-billion-euro tourism industry. A lot of these cases are being linked to Italy, which is seen as a hotspot for the virus in Europe. Forget picturesque heritage sites and picnics in the sun, Northern Italy is now under lockdown. Just a hair under 1700 cases have been reported, with the third greatest number of total deaths (34) behind Iran with 54. Something to be noted is, that while South Korea has over 2000 more cases than Italy, it has thirteen less deaths.
The same applies for Iran, which has around 700 lesser cases than Italy but more fatalities. The 54 figure was reported by 'WorldOMeter' however the official report is a lower 34. This goes in contrast to what sources in the health system have recently reported, that there are at least 210 deaths from the virus in China. These conflicting numbers only point to the uncertainty of the capacity of poorer countries to handle the outbreak. Unable to cope, they have chosen to cover it up, only adding to the problem.
This is an issue which we had seen at the source, in China, as well. While China has handled this virus far better than the SARS outbreak in 2003, there is evidence to an initial attempt of downplaying the Covid-19 outbreak. The death of Li Wenliang, the doctor who first reported the virus as similar to SARS and was asked to stop “making false comments”, through the virus brought attention to this.
South Korea had recently seen a spike in cases linked to a religious cult near the south eastern city of Daegu. More than half of all cases there have been linked to the ‘Shincheonji Church of Jesus’. The virus in this sect hasn’t been contained effectively, with non-compliance with many members and missing or ill reported information on members. Many South Koreans are furious over this, with 1.2 million signing a petition for the church to be disbanded. This is a big move in a country with over 28 percent Christians. The leader of the sect will be facing charges soon, meeting the demands of the furious wider population.
Another hot point for the virus has been the ‘Diamond Princess’, which is a cruise ship harboured in Yokohama Japan. As can be expected this luxury cruise didn’t have a very happy ending, with passengers contained on board. It has seen 705 cases, ahead of the 256 in Japan itself and seven deaths. The quarantine process has been declared a failure, with many passengers getting infected onboard. Countries are moving to evacuate their citizens from the ship, with the US recently evacuating 300. In another failure on part of the authorities, 14 individuals who had tested positive were put on the same flight as the healthy leading to 30 new cases. One American passenger on board even pulled a parallel to the scene on Titanic of pure chaos.
A man evacuated from the ship became the first Australian to die from the virus. 30 British and 2 Irish citizens had recently been evacuated and 119 Indian nationals (most of which were crew) were also flown back to Delhi. A few days ago, a Canadian couple onboard the ship released a video criticizing the quarantine and lack of safeguards. Cruise ships in general are known to be breeding ground for infections due to passengers prolonged close proximity. They have seen cases such as Legionnaires disease, listeria, measles, norovirus, Ebola and now COVID-19. Needless to say, this is one vacation that many wish they’d never splurged on.
The question now is of what the scope of this string of virus could be, and what would be the lasting effects. While COVID-19 is said to be less fatal than MERS (Middle eastern respiratory disease) and SARS, it has had more deaths than the outbreaks of those two combined. WHO had declared that the disease has a high pandemic potential, spooking many across the word, leaving them feeling pathetically unprepared.
The stock markets are no exception. One Feb 17 Apple warned that profits would be lower due to the effects of the virus. It warned that “worldwide iPhone supply will be temporarily constrained.” This didn’t come as much of a shock as Apple is one of the prime examples of a highly interconnected supply chain system, with China being a major aspect of it. It’s stock saw major fluctuation with volatile dips, which were in line with the general slump in the Dow Jones due to the virus. Ten days later Tim Cook reassured investors that Apple hoped to get back on track, as China was getting the virus “under control”.
As I earlier mentioned, Apple wasn’t alone in the dip. 6 trillion dollars’ worth of wealth was wiped with the anxiety over COVID-19. The S&P 100 suffered its worst week since the 2008 financial crisis. This was in fears that the containment effort of the virus could slow down Global Economic growth, with even fears of a global recession. While doomsayers are always up for any opportunity to predict the apocalypse, there are certain indications that they could be onto something.
The virus is having a huge impact on Consumer Service businesses, like bars, restaurants and as I mentioned before, travel. In the US these supported the economy as the manufacturing sector fell into recession due to the US-China trade war. The fears in Europe run deeper, with an already weak base with Britain embroiled in Brexit and Italy in debt. The French and German stock markets fell 3 percent. France is closing the Louvre, a museum which acted as a huge pull for it’s large tourism industry, as it saw 100 new cases. Germany, already on the border of recession, is fearful for it’s highly interconnected automobile industry.
Italy put twelve more towns on lockdown, and has seen the effect translated into its previously thriving tourism industry which includes restaurants and accommodation. Not only that but Italy, like Germany, could also be seeing negative effects on its manufacturing sector owing to its own automotive industry. If the virus were to turn into a pandemic, then there isn’t much stopping from Europe from going into recession.
Not only internal effects, but the virus has brought attention to China’s influence on the world economy. As seen in Apple earlier, it’s sway is being made more evident as any downturn at home has ramifications across the world. Many argue that fears of a global recession are unfounded, as the last outbreak of SARS in 2003 didn’t see such a reactions. However, the current picture is far different from then, as China has grown largely in global prominence. It now makes 18 percent of the global economy as compared to 4 percent back in 2003. A spokesman for the IMF confirmed that it was likely to downgrade “growth projections for the world”.
This leaves us with the final question of the Virus’s future. When will it come to an end? A study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients found the death rate to be 2.9 percent. With most deaths being of those with previous conditions (such as respiratory diseases, or a man in Thailand who had died of the virus but also had dengue) and old age. 87 percent patients are aged 30-79 years; however, I understand why this may not come as a relief to many.
Therefore, many would be glad to know that researchers have found some vaccines and have begun to test them on animals. But, don’t start celebrating just yet. After animal tests, there will be human. Even after then mass producing a vaccine takes a long time, so realistically it could not be made available until midway next year.
So for now, all we can do is stay away from people (not too bad), wear masks and like any kindergarten teacher would say- please wash your hands.