Another try: Catalonia's fight for Independence
People boasted the red and yellow stripes of the Catalan flag as spanish police officers, clad in full black, used batons, tear gas and rubber bullets against the many that had showed up. This was the scene at the October 2017 referendum in Catalonia, an autonomous region in Spain. 42.3 percent of Catalans had turned out to choose whether they wanted to remain a part of Spain or become an individual country. Regardless of the chaos, because of the police brutality and the Spanish constitutional ban on the referendum, the vote took place and (according to Catalan authorities) 90 percent of the 2.2 million that showed up voted to leave. Much has happened since then.
A brief until now-
Carles Puigdemont, former President of Catalonia has been the face of the separatist movement in Catalonia. A week after the referendum many separatist ministers in Carle's parliament were sacked and some even sent to prison. Mr. Puigdemont himself went into a self imposed exile to Belgium. The regional parliament was dissolved and snap elections were held. The elections were won by three separatists parties, a "slap in the face" for the spanish government as Mr. Puigdemont put it. Carles Puigdemont kept on rallying for the growing separatism, until he was arrested on the 25th of March in Germany under an European arrest warrant. All hope isn't lost for the Catalan ex-leader since a German court has refused to extradite Puigdemont to Spain on charges of rebellion and Puigdemont has left prison on bail. However, the German court recently ruled that Carles could still face extradition on charges of misuse of public funds to hold the referendum.
Do all Catalans want the same?
The demonstrations do not stop with the separatists. Societat Civil Catalana is one of the main organizations that has fuelled many protests against the separatist movement. Thousands of people have taken to the street. The organizers of a recent rally claim that 930,000 people joined in, while police puts the number at 350,000. "I am Catalan but, I am also Spanish" is what many people say as they protest to remain in Spain. Many feel that while they have their own values, language, traditions and are "proud of our past", they share the same past with Spain. Different polls however, share vastly different results as to which side has a majority. So identifying what the people want without biasness is proving to be troublesome.
The story on each side-
The question of whether Catalonia should become independent is not as easy to answer as whether the independence would benefit Catalonia. The simple answer to the second question is yes but, there is no simple answer for the first one. Catalan independence would be beneficial for Catalans in financial terms because currently Catalonia has to contribute around €17 billion in taxes to the Spanish state. Catalonia's GDP per capita is even higher than that of Spain and the rich region of Catalonia has to support the less prosperous regions in Spain. Catalonia will also gain the right to manage itself and all decision would therefore be made in and by Barcelona.
The only disadvantages that Catalonia may face will be that of the costs of transition (questioning the worthiness of the "Grand Prize") and becoming smaller in size (which can be disadvantageous in the international community). The list of disadvantages for Spain and some for the larger European community however is not so small. Nationalists around Europe (for example in Scotland, Bavaria and Padania) might take this as an opportunity to demand their own independence, leading to a broken Europe. Spain will lose a huge source of income, since catalonia makes around 223.6 billion euros per year for Spain. Catalonia is also the biggest exporter in Spain, making up around 25.9 percent of the total (followed by Madrid making up 11.4 percent of the total). All this is not even the start of it.
Spain's involvement-
"Free Puigdemont and the Catalan political prisoners" said a banner in a rally which attracted thousands. The weight is slowly shifting towards the separatist which makes people think of the split actually happening. Carles Puigdemont asked for dialogue and not suppression from the Spanish state after being released in Germany. However, the Spanish state responded by giving more reasoning as to why Mr. Carles should be sent to Spain. The more aggression that Madrid shows towards the separatists, the more likely the split will happen. If Madrid really wants Catalonia to remain a part of Spain, a better tactic would be to shed more light towards the people that don't want to leave rather than suppressing the ones that want to.
What to expect?
If Catalans leave spain thinking that they can simply walk into the EU and expect nothing to change, then they will be having a huge misunderstanding. If the spilt does happen, Catalans will have to pay for it and expect a whole lot of changes. However, Spain may have to face the bulk of the disadvantages. There is no certainty as to whether Catalonia will be able to gain independence or not. Catalonia has tried and failed many times before and there is no telling whether this time will be different. One thing is certain however, that if Catalonia fails this will not be the last time it will try.